The crop acreage of suffering disaster this year less than last year

　　According to the weather prediction and the calculation result of the main crop disaster area weather estimate model , the crop acreage suffering disaster in 2006 will be less 15% than in 2005, although kinds of disaster weather appeared since 2005’s winter, such as drought, rain-storm, low temperature, snow, hot etc. The influence of the disaster weather upon the agriculture production since 2005’s winter
　　1, the influence of the drought upon the agriculture production
　　(1)Because the precipitation was less than normal markedly since last autumn in most region of South China , severe drought lasted from autumn to winter in south of Guangxi, most of Guangdong and south of Fujian, the winter crop’s growth was subjected to certain adverse influence.
　　（2）In North China, the Yangtze and Huanghe River Valleys, east of Northwest China and most of Yunnan, the precipitation was about 50 millimeters in Match and April , less 30%-80% than their normal. Adding the strong wind weather, the drought spread rapidly in most of area, most serious in Hebei and Yunnan. The drought not only brought certain influence to the yield of summer harvest wheat and oil crop, but also made the spring sow difficulty.
　　(3)Since entering summer, parts of region were heat and no rain, the growth of autumn harvest crop was influenced.
　　From the end of May, especially June, east of the Northwest China, mid-west part of Inner Mongolia, south of Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan and east of the Southwest China , the monthly precipitation were about 50-80% less than their normal. Adding the higher temperature, ground's water lost quickly, the drought keeps on or develops.
　　2, the influence of the cold, freeze, snowstorm upon the agriculture production
　　(1) In early winter, most mid-east region of our country experienced seriously temperature reducing and strong wind, the winter crop suffers freeze damage. the northern winter wheat turn into a winter stage in advance, part of winter wheat in North China and Huanghuai suffer a freeze damage. part of winter wheat and rape’s growth in Jiangnan, Sichuan and Guizhou also is influence.
　　(2) Part of the southern regions encountered severe low temperature ,freeze and snow damage in Spring. This Spring, the cold air is more active, in mid- March and mid- April most region occurred twice big scope successively strong temperature reducing, parts of regions reduce by 15~20 ℃, and because of this there appeared a frost in the Northwest and North China in April, the winter wheat’s burliness rate has been influenced. The most region of the south of Yangtze River suffered from cold air, the lowest temperature declines to under 10 ℃, parts of regions even decline to 5 ℃ or so, the rape the rice’s growth got a cold damage. Moreover, mid- April, parts of counties in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Tibet encountered suddenly and violently snow, parts of farmlands were overlaid by the accumulated snow, mountain west, caused the wheat output reduction.
　　3, the influence of the strong convection weather(gale, hail, rainstorm and typhoon) upon the agriculture production
　　(1) part of southern region encountered the strong convection weather such as rain-storm and of the thunder-storm strong wind, hail...etc. In the middle and end ten days of April, thunder-storm , waterlogging , gale and hail disasters happened in most region of South of Yangtze River, caused the winter wheat and the rape yield descends significantly. From May to mid- June, severe precipitation processes occurred frequently in most of South China. The early rice was flooded and dead severity. Additionally, part of North of China also encountered local severe convection weather, the damage of crop is more heavy in Hebei, Shanxi, Jilin and Shandong province.
　　（2）The typhoon is great intensity and extensive impact. The first Typhoon of 2006, “CHANCHU” was landfall in east of Guangdong on 18 May, caused serious crop damage in Fujian, Guangdon, Zhejiang and Jiangxi province. The agriculture production loses severity. The second tropical depression landed on Guangdong province Zhanjiang City on 29 Jun. Heavy rainfall and strong wind caused more serious damages in Hainan and Guangdong provinces.
　　4, continuous severe high temperature weather occurred in mid-east of China　
　　High temperature weather more than 35℃ occurred in the most middle and east regions, thereinto, 3-10 days in the middle and south of North China , the middle and west of Huanghuai, the middle and west of Jianghuai, Jianghan, the middle and west of Jiangnan, the east and north of the Southwest, the east and south of Xinjiang, some exceed 10 days. The drought wide-spread because of the clear and dry weather, influenced the growth of the summer and spring sow crop in some regions.
　　the prediction of future weather
　　According to prediction of the National Weather Center, in 2006 midsummer(July-August) the extreme climate events of our country will be more than the normal:
　　1, In midsummer, the rainy area will be from most of North China to the downstream of Yangtze River in North, most of South China in South. The North and the north of JIangnan will encounter summer drought. The precipitations will be more than their normal in east and south of Northeast, most parts of South China, west and south of Southwest, east of Qinghai, north and west of Xinjiang. In above-mentioned area, the varying degrees of waterlogging disaster will happen, especially in Hanshui valleys, upstream of Hanshui and Huanghuai. The South China coast will encounter typhoon and rainstorm. The precipitations will be less than their normal in most of the rest area, summer drought maybe happen in some regions of north of Jiangnan, middle and west of Northwest, east of Sichuan.
　　2, In midsummer, the temperature will be above or nearly their normal in most parts of China. The day's average temperature in Northeast will be slightly higher than its normal, A great scope severity's low temperature will be a small possibility, but local area and stage low temperature still probably take place.
　　3, This year, the tropical storm and typhoon from the Northwest Pacific Ocean and South China will be less than normal, the number landed our country will be equal to last year, more than normal. The last one will be later than normal, maybe bring certain influence to the agriculture production of South China.